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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.73+5.78vs Predicted
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2Tulane University2.28+6.33vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.18+1.94vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University1.59+9.45vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.78+3.42vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.60+1.32vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.68+0.40vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.38+0.35vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.82+0.30vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-1.41vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-1.24vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania1.77-2.58vs Predicted
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13Florida State University1.69-2.53vs Predicted
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14Webb Institute1.73-4.59vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-5.30vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College1.20-2.92vs Predicted
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17Eckerd College1.17-5.08vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan0.68-3.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.78Brown University2.739.5%1st Place
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8.33Tulane University2.286.6%1st Place
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4.94Harvard University3.1816.4%1st Place
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13.45Northeastern University1.591.5%1st Place
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8.42University of Rhode Island2.786.6%1st Place
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7.32U. S. Naval Academy2.607.0%1st Place
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7.4Roger Williams University2.687.2%1st Place
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8.35Cornell University2.387.0%1st Place
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9.3George Washington University1.824.3%1st Place
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8.59St. Mary's College of Maryland2.576.3%1st Place
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9.76Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.315.0%1st Place
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9.42University of Pennsylvania1.774.7%1st Place
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10.47Florida State University1.693.3%1st Place
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9.41Webb Institute1.734.5%1st Place
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9.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.6%1st Place
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13.08Connecticut College1.201.9%1st Place
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11.92Eckerd College1.172.5%1st Place
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14.4University of Michigan0.681.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guthrie Braun | 9.5% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Holthus | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Justin Callahan | 16.4% | 13.7% | 12.7% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 1.5% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 14.1% | 23.5% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Carlos de Castro | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Bridget Green | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 2.9% |
| Sofia Segalla | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 1.9% |
| Peter Foley | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 3.8% |
| Rayne Duff | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 1.8% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 2.2% |
| Skylor Sweet | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 11.4% | 16.1% | 15.9% |
| Jordan Vieira | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 10.4% |
| Jack Homa | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 16.1% | 30.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.