Race 4A

harvard-fj-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Chase Reynolds 8.0% 6.2% 7.5% 7.9% 6.7% 6.9% 8.2% 7.0% 7.0% 7.4% 6.7% 7.4% 5.5% 4.3% 3.3%
Peter Busch 13.8% 14.6% 10.6% 11.7% 10.5% 7.2% 7.8% 6.5% 5.3% 3.7% 3.1% 3.2% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Graham Ness 9.5% 11.2% 10.2% 9.2% 7.6% 10.0% 6.5% 8.1% 6.5% 6.4% 6.7% 2.9% 3.4% 1.5% 0.3%
Adrien Bellanger 5.3% 5.6% 5.5% 6.3% 6.9% 6.9% 6.6% 5.9% 6.2% 7.4% 9.5% 9.0% 7.7% 6.8% 4.4%
Nick Budington 9.5% 10.4% 8.6% 7.9% 8.0% 8.0% 9.5% 8.8% 7.4% 6.7% 4.4% 4.6% 3.4% 2.2% 0.6%
Benjamin Stevens 5.9% 5.5% 7.2% 5.1% 7.3% 6.8% 7.5% 7.2% 9.1% 8.2% 7.8% 7.8% 6.6% 5.8% 2.2%
Ian Hopkins Guerra 11.6% 8.3% 10.3% 8.0% 10.1% 10.7% 7.3% 6.4% 6.4% 6.1% 5.1% 4.6% 2.9% 1.7% 0.5%
Adam Larzelere 5.9% 5.7% 7.0% 6.3% 6.4% 5.8% 7.7% 7.4% 7.4% 6.9% 8.2% 9.1% 7.2% 5.4% 3.6%
Alexandra Chigas 5.5% 5.9% 5.8% 8.1% 6.6% 6.3% 6.2% 9.2% 7.9% 7.7% 7.1% 7.1% 9.7% 4.8% 2.1%
Ella Hubbard 5.2% 5.5% 5.9% 7.3% 7.4% 6.1% 6.0% 9.1% 7.8% 7.9% 8.8% 6.1% 7.0% 6.7% 3.2%
Matthew Wallace 5.4% 7.2% 7.4% 6.5% 6.8% 8.1% 5.4% 7.1% 7.2% 8.4% 6.2% 6.9% 7.2% 6.5% 3.7%
Charlie Apolinsky 1.8% 1.2% 1.8% 1.1% 2.3% 1.0% 4.2% 2.7% 4.5% 5.0% 5.6% 7.7% 10.3% 18.0% 32.8%
Clark Morris 8.1% 7.1% 6.5% 8.7% 6.6% 8.0% 8.2% 7.3% 8.0% 8.4% 7.1% 5.9% 5.1% 3.2% 1.8%
Blake Vogel 2.7% 3.1% 2.8% 3.8% 4.0% 5.0% 5.6% 4.0% 5.6% 5.3% 8.0% 9.5% 11.9% 14.6% 14.1%
Alex Kitay 1.8% 2.5% 2.9% 2.1% 2.8% 3.2% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 4.5% 5.7% 8.2% 10.8% 17.9% 27.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.