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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.45+7.10vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.22+7.20vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.08+6.82vs Predicted
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4Harvard University2.75+2.86vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University2.00+5.24vs Predicted
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6Boston University1.25+6.90vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.67+0.23vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.90+2.68vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59+2.55vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.44+2.33vs Predicted
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11Brown University1.69+0.40vs Predicted
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12Harvard University3.03-5.91vs Predicted
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13Yale University2.39-4.92vs Predicted
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14Fairfield University1.06+0.01vs Predicted
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15Yale University3.29-10.04vs Predicted
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16Salve Regina University0.62-0.68vs Predicted
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17Roger Williams University2.38-8.59vs Predicted
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18University of Rhode Island1.15-4.53vs Predicted
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19Roger Williams University2.06-9.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.1Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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9.2Brown University2.220.1%1st Place
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9.82Tufts University2.080.0%1st Place
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6.86Harvard University2.750.1%1st Place
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10.24Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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12.9Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
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7.23Boston College2.670.1%1st Place
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10.68Tufts University1.900.0%1st Place
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11.55U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.0%1st Place
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12.33U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.440.0%1st Place
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11.4Brown University1.690.0%1st Place
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6.09Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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8.08Yale University2.390.1%1st Place
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14.01Fairfield University1.060.0%1st Place
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4.96Yale University3.290.2%1st Place
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15.32Salve Regina University0.620.0%1st Place
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8.41Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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13.47University of Rhode Island1.150.0%1st Place
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9.36Roger Williams University2.060.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bonauto | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| Jed Bell | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Bryan Trammell | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 1.8% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 8.5% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 1.8% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 12.5% |
| Peter Joslin | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Shea Smith | 4.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.4% |
| Peter McGonagle | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 4.8% |
| Jack Derry | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 7.7% |
| William George | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 3.9% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 10.9% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Sih | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 15.9% | 16.1% |
| Stephan Baker | 16.6% | 15.4% | 12.4% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emil Tullberg | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 16.1% | 31.5% |
| Oliver Stokke | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Olin Guck | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 13.8% |
| George Higham | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.