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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.6%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.29+4.03vs Predicted
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2Boston University1.25+11.20vs Predicted
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3Fairfield University1.06+10.77vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59+7.70vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University2.00+5.32vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.45+2.07vs Predicted
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7Brown University2.22+2.20vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.67-0.53vs Predicted
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9Yale University2.39-0.77vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.03-4.28vs Predicted
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11Brown University1.69+0.32vs Predicted
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12Tufts University2.08-1.98vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island1.15+0.30vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University2.06-4.14vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University2.38-6.67vs Predicted
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16Tufts University1.90-5.66vs Predicted
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17Salve Regina University0.62-1.76vs Predicted
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18U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.44-5.66vs Predicted
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19Harvard University2.75-12.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.03Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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13.2Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
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13.77Fairfield University1.060.0%1st Place
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11.7U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.0%1st Place
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10.32Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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8.07Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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9.2Brown University2.220.0%1st Place
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7.47Boston College2.670.1%1st Place
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8.23Yale University2.390.1%1st Place
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5.72Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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11.32Brown University1.690.0%1st Place
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10.02Tufts University2.080.0%1st Place
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13.3University of Rhode Island1.150.0%1st Place
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9.86Roger Williams University2.060.1%1st Place
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8.33Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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10.34Tufts University1.900.0%1st Place
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15.24Salve Regina University0.620.0%1st Place
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12.34U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.440.0%1st Place
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6.53Harvard University2.750.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 13.8% | 14.7% | 13.2% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 12.7% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 12.4% | 13.4% | 17.8% |
| Peter McGonagle | 2.1% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 4.5% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 1.8% |
| Sam Bonauto | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Jed Bell | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% |
| Peter Joslin | 8.4% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Sih | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 10.4% | 14.0% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William George | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 3.7% |
| Bryan Trammell | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
| Olin Guck | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 12.5% |
| George Higham | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 1.2% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.8% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Shea Smith | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 2.6% |
| Emil Tullberg | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 14.8% | 33.2% |
| Jack Derry | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 6.6% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 9.6% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.