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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.29+3.97vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.38+6.43vs Predicted
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3Boston College2.67+4.28vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59+7.80vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.03+1.11vs Predicted
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6Harvard University2.75+0.87vs Predicted
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7Boston University1.25+6.18vs Predicted
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8Yale University2.39+0.60vs Predicted
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9Fairfield University1.06+4.55vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.90+0.36vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.45-2.94vs Predicted
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12Salve Regina University0.62+3.69vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.44-0.82vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University2.00-3.88vs Predicted
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15Brown University2.22-6.00vs Predicted
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16Brown University1.69-4.66vs Predicted
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17Tufts University2.08-7.34vs Predicted
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18Roger Williams University2.06-8.35vs Predicted
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19University of Rhode Island1.15-5.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.97Yale University3.290.2%1st Place
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8.43Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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7.28Boston College2.670.1%1st Place
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11.8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.0%1st Place
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6.11Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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6.87Harvard University2.750.1%1st Place
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13.18Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
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8.6Yale University2.390.1%1st Place
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13.55Fairfield University1.060.0%1st Place
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10.36Tufts University1.900.0%1st Place
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8.06Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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15.69Salve Regina University0.620.0%1st Place
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12.18U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.440.0%1st Place
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10.12Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
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9.0Brown University2.220.1%1st Place
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11.34Brown University1.690.0%1st Place
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9.66Tufts University2.080.0%1st Place
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9.65Roger Williams University2.060.0%1st Place
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13.16University of Rhode Island1.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 15.4% | 15.0% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Peter Joslin | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Peter McGonagle | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 4.9% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 9.5% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 9.9% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 2.7% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 11.6% |
| Nathan Sih | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 14.3% | 15.0% |
| Shea Smith | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 1.7% |
| Sam Bonauto | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| Emil Tullberg | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 10.5% | 13.7% | 37.0% |
| Jack Derry | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.5% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 5.2% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 1.5% |
| Jed Bell | 5.6% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.2% |
| William George | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 3.8% |
| Bryan Trammell | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| George Higham | 3.7% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.3% |
| Olin Guck | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 11.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.