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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.45+7.05vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.29+3.08vs Predicted
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3Harvard University2.75+3.98vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.67+3.26vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.06+5.02vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.08+3.65vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.38+1.44vs Predicted
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8Brown University2.22+1.35vs Predicted
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9Yale University2.39-0.85vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.03-4.32vs Predicted
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11Salve Regina University0.62+4.39vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University2.00-1.58vs Predicted
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13Fairfield University1.06+0.60vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.44-1.48vs Predicted
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15Boston University1.25-2.01vs Predicted
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16Tufts University1.90-5.67vs Predicted
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17Brown University1.69-5.72vs Predicted
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18University of Rhode Island1.15-4.50vs Predicted
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19U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59-7.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.05Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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5.08Yale University3.290.2%1st Place
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6.98Harvard University2.750.1%1st Place
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7.26Boston College2.670.1%1st Place
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10.02Roger Williams University2.060.0%1st Place
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9.65Tufts University2.080.1%1st Place
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8.44Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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9.35Brown University2.220.1%1st Place
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8.15Yale University2.390.1%1st Place
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5.68Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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15.39Salve Regina University0.620.0%1st Place
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10.42Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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13.6Fairfield University1.060.0%1st Place
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12.52U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.440.0%1st Place
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12.99Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
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10.33Tufts University1.900.0%1st Place
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11.28Brown University1.690.0%1st Place
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13.5University of Rhode Island1.150.0%1st Place
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11.32U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bonauto | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Stephan Baker | 16.4% | 12.3% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| Peter Joslin | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| George Higham | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Bryan Trammell | 5.0% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.3% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| Jed Bell | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Nathan Sih | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 11.5% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Emil Tullberg | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 16.2% | 31.6% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 1.4% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 12.9% | 11.4% | 15.1% |
| Jack Derry | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 7.6% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 13.1% |
| Shea Smith | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 2.5% |
| William George | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 4.5% |
| Olin Guck | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 12.8% | 13.4% |
| Peter McGonagle | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 3.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.