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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.82+5.59vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College3.71+2.01vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.95+6.46vs Predicted
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4Boston University2.21+4.72vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.56+2.57vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island1.77+4.12vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.32-1.86vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.61-0.59vs Predicted
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9Yale University3.10-3.29vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College3.18-4.35vs Predicted
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11Eckerd College2.73-3.99vs Predicted
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12Cornell University1.60-1.13vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.38-4.66vs Predicted
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14Fordham University0.43-0.67vs Predicted
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15University of Minnesota1.77-4.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.59Brown University2.820.1%1st Place
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4.01Connecticut College3.710.2%1st Place
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9.46University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
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8.72Boston University2.210.0%1st Place
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7.57Bowdoin College2.560.1%1st Place
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10.12University of Rhode Island1.770.0%1st Place
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5.14U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.320.1%1st Place
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7.41Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.610.1%1st Place
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5.71Yale University3.100.1%1st Place
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5.65Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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7.01Eckerd College2.730.1%1st Place
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10.87Cornell University1.600.0%1st Place
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8.34Tufts University2.380.1%1st Place
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13.33Fordham University0.430.0%1st Place
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10.07University of Minnesota1.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Adams | 7.9% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| Atlantic Brugman | 20.6% | 17.4% | 12.5% | 12.6% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christina Johns | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 4.8% |
| Erica Lush | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 3.6% |
| Katherine Doble | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 1.2% |
| Catherine Coupland | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 12.8% | 14.3% | 8.0% |
| Jennifer Proctor | 13.2% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 13.0% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Gullick | 6.2% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 0.9% |
| Genoa Warner | 10.0% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Kelsey Wheeler | 10.0% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Solvig Sayre | 6.5% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Hillary Paulsen | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 10.2% | 14.1% | 18.5% | 12.2% |
| Paula Grasberger | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 2.1% |
| Mary Hamilton | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 13.4% | 56.9% |
| Natalie Sinn | 2.3% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 12.1% | 12.8% | 15.1% | 7.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.