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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.75+4.58vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45+3.73vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.07+4.15vs Predicted
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5Harvard University2.30+2.50vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.03+2.29vs Predicted
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7Brown University1.83+2.15vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.12+0.07vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.52+1.03vs Predicted
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10Boston College1.33+0.78vs Predicted
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11Brown University2.41-4.07vs Predicted
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12Tufts University1.02-0.21vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College1.11-1.46vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College2.33-6.86vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont1.89-6.30vs Predicted
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16Tufts University1.30-4.96vs Predicted
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17Yale University3.12-12.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.58Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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6.73U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
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8.15Dartmouth College2.070.1%1st Place
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7.5Harvard University2.300.1%1st Place
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8.29Bowdoin College2.030.0%1st Place
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9.15Brown University1.830.0%1st Place
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8.07Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.120.1%1st Place
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10.03Northeastern University1.520.0%1st Place
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10.78Boston College1.330.0%1st Place
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6.93Brown University2.410.1%1st Place
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11.79Tufts University1.020.0%1st Place
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11.54Connecticut College1.110.0%1st Place
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7.14Dartmouth College2.330.1%1st Place
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8.7University of Vermont1.890.1%1st Place
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11.04Tufts University1.300.0%1st Place
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4.58Yale University3.120.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Cowles | 12.5% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Emily Bornarth | 8.8% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Taylor Eastman | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.6% |
| Sarah Burn | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Ellie Maus | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.6% |
| Emily Mueller | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 5.0% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 1.9% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.5% |
| Lourdes Gallo | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 13.9% |
| Caroline Bayless | 8.6% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Samantha Jensen | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 11.7% | 15.2% | 23.0% |
| Aili Moffet | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 11.0% | 12.2% | 21.8% |
| Gray Hemans | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Grace Gear | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 3.2% |
| Haley Andreasen | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 16.2% | 12.8% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 16.8% | 13.3% | 14.6% | 12.8% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.