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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.32+4.09vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College3.71+1.94vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.61+4.30vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.82+2.69vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.10+0.90vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.56+1.54vs Predicted
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7Boston University2.21+1.68vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College3.18-2.38vs Predicted
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9Tufts University2.38-0.89vs Predicted
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10University of Minnesota1.77+0.19vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island1.77-0.87vs Predicted
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12Cornell University1.60-1.09vs Predicted
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13Fordham University0.43+0.44vs Predicted
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14Eckerd College2.73-7.07vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania1.95-5.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.09U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.320.1%1st Place
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3.94Connecticut College3.710.2%1st Place
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7.3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.610.1%1st Place
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6.69Brown University2.820.1%1st Place
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5.9Yale University3.100.1%1st Place
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7.54Bowdoin College2.560.0%1st Place
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8.68Boston University2.210.0%1st Place
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5.62Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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8.11Tufts University2.380.0%1st Place
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10.19University of Minnesota1.770.0%1st Place
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10.13University of Rhode Island1.770.0%1st Place
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10.91Cornell University1.600.0%1st Place
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13.44Fordham University0.430.0%1st Place
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6.93Eckerd College2.730.1%1st Place
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9.51University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jennifer Proctor | 12.8% | 13.8% | 12.5% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Atlantic Brugman | 19.6% | 18.2% | 13.8% | 13.5% | 10.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Gullick | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 0.8% |
| Sky Adams | 7.5% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Genoa Warner | 10.5% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Doble | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 0.4% |
| Erica Lush | 4.8% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 3.0% |
| Kelsey Wheeler | 11.0% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Paula Grasberger | 4.6% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 1.8% |
| Natalie Sinn | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 13.0% | 14.7% | 8.2% |
| Catherine Coupland | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 12.6% | 14.1% | 9.1% |
| Hillary Paulsen | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 15.1% | 18.8% | 11.6% |
| Mary Hamilton | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 12.1% | 59.9% |
| Solvig Sayre | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| Christina Johns | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 13.1% | 4.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.