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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College3.71+3.05vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.82+4.53vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.32+2.12vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.56+3.53vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island1.77+5.09vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.38+2.16vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College3.18-1.47vs Predicted
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8Yale University3.10-2.17vs Predicted
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9Eckerd College2.73-2.10vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.61-2.53vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania1.95-1.44vs Predicted
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12Cornell University1.60-1.11vs Predicted
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13Boston University2.21-4.09vs Predicted
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14Fordham University0.43-0.66vs Predicted
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15University of Minnesota1.77-4.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.05Connecticut College3.710.2%1st Place
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6.53Brown University2.820.1%1st Place
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5.12U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.320.1%1st Place
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7.53Bowdoin College2.560.1%1st Place
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10.09University of Rhode Island1.770.0%1st Place
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8.16Tufts University2.380.0%1st Place
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5.53Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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5.83Yale University3.100.1%1st Place
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6.9Eckerd College2.730.1%1st Place
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7.47Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.610.1%1st Place
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9.56University of Pennsylvania1.950.0%1st Place
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10.89Cornell University1.600.0%1st Place
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8.91Boston University2.210.0%1st Place
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13.34Fordham University0.430.0%1st Place
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10.09University of Minnesota1.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlantic Brugman | 20.2% | 17.8% | 13.5% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Sky Adams | 7.2% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Jennifer Proctor | 12.3% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Katherine Doble | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 1.0% |
| Catherine Coupland | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 11.3% | 13.0% | 14.9% | 8.6% |
| Paula Grasberger | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 4.6% | 1.4% |
| Kelsey Wheeler | 12.4% | 9.1% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Genoa Warner | 10.5% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Solvig Sayre | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% |
| Katherine Gullick | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| Christina Johns | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 6.0% |
| Hillary Paulsen | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 13.7% | 19.0% | 11.9% |
| Erica Lush | 3.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 3.9% |
| Mary Hamilton | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 13.6% | 56.8% |
| Natalie Sinn | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 16.6% | 7.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.