← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
78.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Roger Williams University2.40+1.45vs Predicted
-
2University of Rhode Island1.41+1.89vs Predicted
-
3Yale University0.66+2.42vs Predicted
-
4University of Rhode Island2.24-1.31vs Predicted
-
5Brown University0.64+0.58vs Predicted
-
6McGill University-0.70+2.58vs Predicted
-
7Fairfield University-0.62+1.11vs Predicted
-
8Tufts University1.02-3.28vs Predicted
-
9University of New Hampshire-0.82-0.21vs Predicted
-
10Salve Regina University-0.90-0.94vs Predicted
-
11Middlebury College-1.76-0.07vs Predicted
-
12Bates College-1.95-0.73vs Predicted
-
13University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.07-1.58vs Predicted
-
14University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-2.44-1.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
2.45Roger Williams University2.400.3%1st Place
-
3.89University of Rhode Island1.410.1%1st Place
-
5.42Yale University0.660.1%1st Place
-
2.69University of Rhode Island2.240.3%1st Place
-
5.58Brown University0.640.0%1st Place
-
8.58McGill University-0.700.0%1st Place
-
8.11Fairfield University-0.620.0%1st Place
-
4.72Tufts University1.020.1%1st Place
-
8.79University of New Hampshire-0.820.0%1st Place
-
9.06Salve Regina University-0.900.0%1st Place
-
10.93Middlebury College-1.760.0%1st Place
-
11.27Bates College-1.950.0%1st Place
-
11.42University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.070.0%1st Place
-
12.09University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-2.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Mastovsky | 34.4% | 25.4% | 17.3% | 12.9% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Polek | 12.2% | 15.4% | 18.3% | 18.2% | 15.4% | 9.7% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Rifkind-Brown | 6.4% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 15.3% | 16.2% | 15.1% | 9.4% | 5.7% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Declan Botwinick | 26.9% | 26.5% | 18.1% | 15.6% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Keller Morrison | 4.2% | 6.2% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 15.7% | 16.3% | 15.3% | 10.3% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Pierre Offredi | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 15.9% | 13.0% | 12.1% | 8.8% | 4.6% | 1.0% |
| Michael Cunniff | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 13.5% | 15.1% | 13.1% | 10.6% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| Niall Sheridan | 9.3% | 10.1% | 12.5% | 15.7% | 15.1% | 13.3% | 12.1% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Poynter | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 13.3% | 14.7% | 17.3% | 12.9% | 7.8% | 4.6% | 2.2% |
| Garrett Moen | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 13.5% | 15.2% | 12.3% | 11.4% | 6.3% | 2.8% |
| Evelyn Lane | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 14.3% | 18.9% | 18.8% | 13.9% |
| John Hull | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 14.6% | 17.3% | 19.6% | 19.5% |
| Ozel Yilmazel | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 16.9% | 21.1% | 22.6% |
| Carissa Keung | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 11.6% | 22.0% | 37.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.