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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island1.41+2.94vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.40+0.39vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.24-0.37vs Predicted
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4Tufts University1.02+0.74vs Predicted
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5Yale University0.66+0.58vs Predicted
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6Brown University0.64-0.47vs Predicted
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7Middlebury College-1.76+3.66vs Predicted
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8McGill University-0.70+0.43vs Predicted
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9Bates College-1.95+2.31vs Predicted
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10Fairfield University-0.62-1.58vs Predicted
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11University of New Hampshire-0.82-2.12vs Predicted
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12University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-2.44+0.16vs Predicted
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13Salve Regina University-0.90-4.05vs Predicted
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14University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.07-2.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.94University of Rhode Island1.410.1%1st Place
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2.39Roger Williams University2.400.3%1st Place
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2.63University of Rhode Island2.240.3%1st Place
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4.74Tufts University1.020.1%1st Place
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5.58Yale University0.660.1%1st Place
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5.53Brown University0.640.1%1st Place
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10.66Middlebury College-1.760.0%1st Place
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8.43McGill University-0.700.0%1st Place
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11.31Bates College-1.950.0%1st Place
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8.42Fairfield University-0.620.0%1st Place
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8.88University of New Hampshire-0.820.0%1st Place
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12.16University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-2.440.0%1st Place
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8.95Salve Regina University-0.900.0%1st Place
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11.39University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Polek | 12.1% | 15.5% | 18.5% | 16.7% | 15.6% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drew Mastovsky | 33.0% | 27.9% | 20.3% | 9.4% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Declan Botwinick | 29.8% | 25.1% | 17.9% | 14.4% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Niall Sheridan | 7.2% | 9.3% | 14.3% | 16.9% | 17.0% | 14.3% | 9.3% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Rifkind-Brown | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 13.3% | 14.7% | 16.1% | 15.8% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Keller Morrison | 5.5% | 6.2% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 16.2% | 16.3% | 13.3% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Evelyn Lane | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 13.7% | 17.4% | 15.7% | 13.9% |
| Pierre Offredi | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 13.4% | 14.5% | 13.1% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 4.5% | 1.3% |
| John Hull | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 13.4% | 17.6% | 20.3% | 20.3% |
| Michael Cunniff | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 13.1% | 15.5% | 14.0% | 11.4% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| Henry Poynter | 1.1% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 12.6% | 14.2% | 15.2% | 14.1% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 2.2% |
| Carissa Keung | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 22.8% | 37.6% |
| Garrett Moen | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 13.3% | 12.3% | 17.3% | 12.2% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 2.5% |
| Ozel Yilmazel | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 11.8% | 18.4% | 20.6% | 21.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.