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📊 Prediction Accuracy
71.4%
Within 2 Positions
1.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island2.24+1.65vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.40+0.41vs Predicted
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3Brown University0.64+2.46vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island1.41+0.01vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.02-0.20vs Predicted
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6Yale University0.66-0.47vs Predicted
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7Fairfield University-0.62+1.11vs Predicted
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8Salve Regina University-0.90+0.92vs Predicted
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9Bates College-1.95+2.32vs Predicted
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10McGill University-0.70-1.42vs Predicted
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11University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.07+0.55vs Predicted
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12University of New Hampshire-0.82-3.19vs Predicted
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13Middlebury College-1.76-2.20vs Predicted
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14University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-2.44-1.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.65University of Rhode Island2.240.3%1st Place
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2.41Roger Williams University2.400.3%1st Place
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5.46Brown University0.640.1%1st Place
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4.01University of Rhode Island1.410.1%1st Place
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4.8Tufts University1.020.1%1st Place
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5.53Yale University0.660.1%1st Place
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8.11Fairfield University-0.620.0%1st Place
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8.92Salve Regina University-0.900.0%1st Place
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11.32Bates College-1.950.0%1st Place
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8.58McGill University-0.700.0%1st Place
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11.55University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.070.0%1st Place
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8.81University of New Hampshire-0.820.0%1st Place
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10.8Middlebury College-1.760.0%1st Place
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12.03University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-2.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Declan Botwinick | 29.4% | 26.6% | 17.2% | 12.4% | 8.4% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drew Mastovsky | 33.9% | 26.4% | 20.3% | 10.1% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Keller Morrison | 5.4% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 15.1% | 16.2% | 16.5% | 9.2% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Polek | 10.8% | 15.4% | 16.8% | 19.4% | 14.6% | 10.6% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Niall Sheridan | 7.2% | 9.5% | 13.4% | 15.8% | 16.0% | 15.3% | 11.3% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Rifkind-Brown | 5.6% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 13.9% | 15.2% | 14.2% | 13.9% | 11.7% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Cunniff | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 15.8% | 13.9% | 11.9% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Garrett Moen | 1.5% | 1.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 11.5% | 13.7% | 15.4% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 7.2% | 2.0% |
| John Hull | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 13.8% | 18.2% | 19.5% | 20.8% |
| Pierre Offredi | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 13.8% | 16.2% | 11.9% | 13.6% | 8.4% | 3.9% | 1.3% |
| Ozel Yilmazel | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 16.0% | 21.4% | 24.9% |
| Henry Poynter | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 10.5% | 12.9% | 14.8% | 13.7% | 13.2% | 9.8% | 4.6% | 2.1% |
| Evelyn Lane | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 10.9% | 14.5% | 17.7% | 18.9% | 12.5% |
| Carissa Keung | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 12.7% | 21.4% | 35.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.