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📊 Prediction Accuracy
76.9%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island2.24+1.66vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.02+2.72vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island1.41+1.04vs Predicted
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4Brown University0.64+1.47vs Predicted
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5Yale University0.66+0.38vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.40-3.60vs Predicted
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7University of New Hampshire-0.82+1.50vs Predicted
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8Salve Regina University-0.90+0.72vs Predicted
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9McGill University-0.70-0.65vs Predicted
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10University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.07+1.00vs Predicted
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11Middlebury College-1.76-0.58vs Predicted
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12Fairfield University-0.62-3.66vs Predicted
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13Bates College-1.95-1.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.66University of Rhode Island2.240.3%1st Place
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4.72Tufts University1.020.1%1st Place
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4.04University of Rhode Island1.410.1%1st Place
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5.47Brown University0.640.1%1st Place
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5.38Yale University0.660.1%1st Place
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2.4Roger Williams University2.400.3%1st Place
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8.5University of New Hampshire-0.820.0%1st Place
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8.72Salve Regina University-0.900.0%1st Place
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8.35McGill University-0.700.0%1st Place
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11.0University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.070.0%1st Place
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10.42Middlebury College-1.760.0%1st Place
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8.34Fairfield University-0.620.0%1st Place
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11.01Bates College-1.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Declan Botwinick | 28.2% | 24.4% | 21.3% | 13.5% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Niall Sheridan | 8.4% | 9.9% | 12.6% | 14.5% | 18.7% | 15.2% | 9.7% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Polek | 10.6% | 15.2% | 17.9% | 16.3% | 16.0% | 12.1% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Keller Morrison | 5.3% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 13.4% | 14.5% | 15.9% | 14.1% | 10.9% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Sam Rifkind-Brown | 5.8% | 7.3% | 10.4% | 13.7% | 14.6% | 13.3% | 14.0% | 11.8% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Drew Mastovsky | 34.8% | 27.1% | 17.5% | 10.7% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Poynter | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 11.0% | 11.4% | 16.0% | 15.6% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 3.9% |
| Garrett Moen | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 11.9% | 16.2% | 15.3% | 14.2% | 11.1% | 3.4% |
| Pierre Offredi | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 11.6% | 13.6% | 14.4% | 16.0% | 12.0% | 7.9% | 2.6% |
| Ozel Yilmazel | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 13.7% | 22.0% | 34.2% |
| Evelyn Lane | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 13.7% | 17.9% | 20.8% | 19.8% |
| Michael Cunniff | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 12.0% | 14.4% | 15.0% | 14.3% | 11.6% | 7.5% | 2.9% |
| John Hull | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 17.0% | 20.4% | 32.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.