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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.18+4.14vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.73+4.83vs Predicted
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3Florida State University1.69+7.54vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+4.37vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+4.80vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.38+2.46vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.82+2.30vs Predicted
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8Tulane University2.28+0.33vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.60-1.85vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island2.78-1.47vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.59+2.56vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.73-2.64vs Predicted
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13Eckerd College1.17-1.01vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania1.77-4.79vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-5.09vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan0.68-1.87vs Predicted
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17Roger Williams University2.68-9.60vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College1.20-5.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.14Harvard University3.1814.7%1st Place
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6.83Brown University2.738.2%1st Place
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10.54Florida State University1.694.3%1st Place
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8.37St. Mary's College of Maryland2.577.2%1st Place
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9.8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.2%1st Place
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8.46Cornell University2.386.1%1st Place
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9.3George Washington University1.825.1%1st Place
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8.33Tulane University2.286.0%1st Place
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7.15U. S. Naval Academy2.608.9%1st Place
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8.53University of Rhode Island2.785.7%1st Place
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13.56Northeastern University1.591.8%1st Place
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9.36Webb Institute1.734.9%1st Place
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11.99Eckerd College1.172.1%1st Place
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9.21University of Pennsylvania1.775.2%1st Place
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9.91Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.314.2%1st Place
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14.13University of Michigan0.681.2%1st Place
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7.4Roger Williams University2.688.2%1st Place
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12.99Connecticut College1.201.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 14.7% | 13.2% | 12.5% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Guthrie Braun | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Peter Foley | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 5.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 2.6% |
| Bridget Green | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.8% |
| Kelly Holthus | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 16.4% | 23.0% |
| Rayne Duff | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.1% |
| Jordan Vieira | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 10.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 2.4% |
| Jack Homa | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 11.4% | 14.9% | 29.7% |
| Carlos de Castro | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Skylor Sweet | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 11.2% | 15.0% | 17.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.