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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+2.57vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+3.82vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College2.35+1.16vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.78+1.17vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.50-1.26vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.29-1.80vs Predicted
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7Cornell University0.38+0.75vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.37-1.91vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.13-4.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.57Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.2%1st Place
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5.82St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.1%1st Place
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4.16SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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5.17Fordham University1.780.1%1st Place
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3.74Fordham University2.500.2%1st Place
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4.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.290.1%1st Place
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7.75Cornell University0.380.0%1st Place
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6.09Cornell University1.370.1%1st Place
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4.51University of Pennsylvania2.130.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 19.2% | 18.6% | 15.0% | 14.8% | 12.8% | 9.6% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 5.2% | 5.1% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 17.1% | 21.5% | 9.0% |
| Spencer Barnes | 14.2% | 13.5% | 16.1% | 13.2% | 12.2% | 12.8% | 9.8% | 6.2% | 2.0% |
| Beckett Kumler | 8.0% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 13.4% | 12.5% | 15.0% | 14.1% | 6.2% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 19.3% | 18.6% | 13.3% | 13.4% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 2.0% |
| Richard Gleason | 13.9% | 12.5% | 15.2% | 15.4% | 13.6% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 2.4% |
| Aidan Lane | 2.1% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 16.3% | 57.6% |
| Sophia Peck | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 13.1% | 14.4% | 20.1% | 17.3% |
| Cole Woodworth | 11.7% | 13.4% | 12.5% | 11.7% | 13.5% | 13.0% | 13.3% | 8.1% | 2.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.