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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+2.56vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College2.35+2.29vs Predicted
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3Cornell University0.38+4.77vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.29+0.16vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.37+0.90vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62-0.42vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.78-1.61vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.13-3.44vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.50-5.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.56Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.2%1st Place
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4.29SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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7.77Cornell University0.380.0%1st Place
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4.16Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.290.1%1st Place
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5.9Cornell University1.370.1%1st Place
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5.58St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.1%1st Place
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5.39Fordham University1.780.1%1st Place
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4.56University of Pennsylvania2.130.1%1st Place
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3.8Fordham University2.500.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 20.3% | 17.6% | 16.4% | 13.6% | 12.4% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 1.0% |
| Spencer Barnes | 12.4% | 13.8% | 14.5% | 13.8% | 14.1% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 6.5% | 2.5% |
| Aidan Lane | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 8.4% | 15.9% | 57.7% |
| Richard Gleason | 13.6% | 16.1% | 13.8% | 13.1% | 13.8% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 5.9% | 2.6% |
| Sophia Peck | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 13.7% | 19.3% | 15.9% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 14.4% | 16.0% | 19.0% | 8.2% |
| Beckett Kumler | 9.1% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 14.9% | 15.5% | 15.2% | 7.9% |
| Cole Woodworth | 11.9% | 12.6% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 11.9% | 13.8% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 3.1% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 17.6% | 16.9% | 14.1% | 14.7% | 13.7% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 1.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.