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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+2.54vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.78+3.48vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+2.67vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.13+0.46vs Predicted
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5Cornell University0.38+2.55vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.37+0.08vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.29-2.71vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College2.35-3.86vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.50-5.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.54Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.2%1st Place
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5.48Fordham University1.780.1%1st Place
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5.67St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.1%1st Place
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4.46University of Pennsylvania2.130.1%1st Place
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7.55Cornell University0.380.0%1st Place
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6.08Cornell University1.370.1%1st Place
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4.29Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.290.1%1st Place
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4.14SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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3.79Fordham University2.500.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 20.2% | 19.4% | 14.5% | 13.0% | 14.5% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 1.0% |
| Beckett Kumler | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 15.1% | 13.6% | 15.4% | 9.7% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 7.0% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 15.6% | 18.5% | 11.3% |
| Cole Woodworth | 11.8% | 13.6% | 13.0% | 13.4% | 12.7% | 12.4% | 12.0% | 7.6% | 3.5% |
| Aidan Lane | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 15.4% | 53.0% |
| Sophia Peck | 5.3% | 5.4% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 13.3% | 15.5% | 21.9% | 15.1% |
| Richard Gleason | 13.4% | 13.1% | 14.1% | 12.8% | 15.3% | 12.4% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 2.6% |
| Spencer Barnes | 14.9% | 15.4% | 13.7% | 12.9% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 6.3% | 2.0% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 18.6% | 15.9% | 15.0% | 14.8% | 12.1% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 3.9% | 1.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.