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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.29+3.25vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.78+3.46vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+2.63vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-0.53vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.13-0.55vs Predicted
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6Cornell University0.38+1.71vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.37-0.87vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College2.35-3.88vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.50-5.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.25Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.290.1%1st Place
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5.46Fordham University1.780.1%1st Place
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5.63St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.1%1st Place
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3.47Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.2%1st Place
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4.45University of Pennsylvania2.130.1%1st Place
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7.71Cornell University0.380.0%1st Place
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6.13Cornell University1.370.1%1st Place
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4.12SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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3.78Fordham University2.500.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Gleason | 14.7% | 12.2% | 13.4% | 14.6% | 14.4% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 6.8% | 2.2% |
| Beckett Kumler | 5.8% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 15.3% | 12.7% | 15.7% | 14.0% | 9.2% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 7.2% | 5.6% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 15.5% | 20.7% | 8.4% |
| Will Murray | 18.8% | 20.9% | 16.3% | 14.8% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Cole Woodworth | 13.7% | 12.7% | 13.2% | 12.8% | 11.4% | 12.9% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 4.3% |
| Aidan Lane | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 8.5% | 15.3% | 56.5% |
| Sophia Peck | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 13.3% | 15.5% | 21.7% | 15.5% |
| Spencer Barnes | 14.4% | 15.3% | 14.5% | 14.3% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 5.7% | 2.2% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 17.6% | 17.3% | 14.6% | 13.7% | 11.9% | 12.7% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 1.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.