Race 3A

old-guard

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Thomas Barrows 18.2% 15.1% 14.1% 11.9% 10.0% 7.5% 6.8% 6.5% 3.5% 3.4% 1.3% 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Fred Strammer 12.6% 11.9% 11.4% 10.4% 9.4% 8.1% 6.7% 6.5% 8.1% 5.4% 3.7% 2.8% 1.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0%
Halsey Richartz 5.4% 3.8% 5.6% 5.7% 6.2% 6.5% 7.3% 8.4% 6.8% 9.7% 8.6% 8.4% 6.8% 6.4% 3.9% 0.5%
Andrew Sommer 5.3% 6.3% 7.3% 6.8% 5.9% 9.3% 7.9% 8.7% 7.8% 7.8% 6.9% 7.2% 6.9% 4.0% 1.7% 0.2%
Anne Haeger 10.2% 10.8% 10.1% 10.2% 10.7% 10.1% 7.2% 8.4% 5.4% 5.7% 4.9% 3.0% 2.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0%
Alan Palmer 10.8% 11.7% 11.4% 10.4% 10.0% 10.7% 8.0% 5.5% 5.9% 5.4% 4.6% 2.9% 1.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
Rebecca Dellenbaugh 5.7% 6.4% 6.3% 5.3% 7.5% 5.9% 7.5% 6.5% 8.8% 8.9% 8.9% 7.4% 6.8% 5.3% 2.5% 0.3%
Vincent Andrews 2.0% 2.6% 2.5% 3.4% 3.0% 4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 6.6% 6.0% 7.4% 9.3% 11.4% 13.5% 15.6% 3.1%
Peter Pellegrini 6.8% 6.7% 6.8% 7.7% 7.2% 8.7% 7.8% 8.3% 8.7% 6.7% 7.8% 6.1% 3.9% 4.0% 2.4% 0.4%
Krysta Rohde 3.6% 4.4% 3.6% 3.4% 4.9% 3.8% 6.3% 5.5% 6.0% 7.7% 10.4% 10.1% 12.6% 10.4% 5.6% 1.7%
Gary Herring 4.3% 4.8% 4.5% 4.8% 5.7% 4.6% 6.3% 6.0% 8.3% 6.6% 9.0% 8.9% 10.5% 9.3% 5.4% 1.0%
Massimo Soriano 6.1% 4.4% 5.0% 7.9% 7.0% 7.2% 6.7% 7.2% 8.0% 6.7% 7.4% 8.7% 8.1% 5.2% 4.1% 0.3%
Johnny Norfleet 5.6% 6.7% 7.6% 7.3% 6.8% 6.8% 8.4% 9.8% 7.3% 8.5% 6.4% 6.8% 5.0% 4.7% 2.3% 0.0%
Brendan Hannon 2.5% 2.0% 1.7% 3.4% 4.0% 3.7% 5.2% 5.7% 5.2% 6.6% 6.8% 9.3% 12.2% 14.3% 13.6% 3.8%
Michael Weigand 0.3% 0.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.6% 1.0% 1.2% 2.1% 2.0% 4.0% 11.0% 74.4%
Kelly Cooke 0.6% 1.9% 1.2% 0.9% 1.4% 2.2% 2.7% 2.3% 3.0% 3.9% 4.7% 6.5% 7.8% 16.0% 30.6% 14.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.