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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tulane University2.94+8.13vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.42+5.03vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.47+3.96vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+6.27vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+5.85vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.22+1.79vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara2.34+4.84vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University3.00+1.10vs Predicted
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9Boston University2.57+1.52vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-1.20vs Predicted
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11Yale University3.12-2.81vs Predicted
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12Harvard University3.54-5.26vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.62-2.71vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-3.40vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy2.40-3.72vs Predicted
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16North Carolina State University2.01-2.95vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College2.46-5.78vs Predicted
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18Boston College2.53-7.18vs Predicted
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19University of Wisconsin1.25-3.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.13Tulane University2.940.0%1st Place
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7.03Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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6.96Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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10.27Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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10.85U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.0%1st Place
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7.79Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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11.84University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.0%1st Place
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9.1Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
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10.52Boston University2.570.0%1st Place
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8.8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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8.19Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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6.74Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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10.29Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
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10.6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.0%1st Place
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11.28U. S. Naval Academy2.400.0%1st Place
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13.05North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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11.22Connecticut College2.460.0%1st Place
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10.82Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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15.52University of Wisconsin1.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Giblin | 4.9% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.0% |
| Connor Nelson | 9.7% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Robert Bragg | 9.5% | 11.1% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Sam Bruce | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.6% |
| Daniel Unangst | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 3.8% |
| Mariner Fagan | 9.2% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Chris Kayda | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.3% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.6% |
| Tyler Mowry | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 3.5% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Jack Egan | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 9.9% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Trevor Davis | 5.0% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 2.9% |
| Will Murray | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 3.4% |
| Trenton Shaw | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 6.7% |
| Adam Larson | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 14.3% | 12.6% |
| Walter Henry | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 5.9% |
| Michael Kirkman | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 5.1% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 13.5% | 39.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.