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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.42+6.03vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.54+4.60vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+7.69vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+6.44vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.12+3.55vs Predicted
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6Tulane University2.94+3.02vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University3.22+0.93vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+1.17vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.40+2.25vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University3.00-1.29vs Predicted
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11Boston University2.57-0.27vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-1.42vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College3.47-6.43vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College2.46-2.63vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara2.34-3.40vs Predicted
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16Tufts University2.62-5.64vs Predicted
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17North Carolina State University2.01-3.92vs Predicted
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18Boston College2.53-7.17vs Predicted
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19University of Wisconsin1.25-3.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.03Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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6.6Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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10.69U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.0%1st Place
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10.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.0%1st Place
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8.55Yale University3.120.0%1st Place
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9.02Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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7.93Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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9.17St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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11.25U. S. Naval Academy2.400.0%1st Place
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8.71Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
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10.73Boston University2.570.0%1st Place
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10.58Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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6.57Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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11.37Connecticut College2.460.0%1st Place
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11.6University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.0%1st Place
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10.36Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
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13.08North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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10.83Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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15.5University of Wisconsin1.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Nelson | 8.4% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 11.0% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Daniel Unangst | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 4.3% |
| Will Murray | 3.5% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 2.9% |
| Jack Egan | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Cameron Giblin | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.3% |
| Mariner Fagan | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.6% |
| Trenton Shaw | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 5.6% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 6.4% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Tyler Mowry | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 3.9% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 2.1% |
| Robert Bragg | 10.4% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Walter Henry | 4.7% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 5.0% |
| Chris Kayda | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.1% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.2% |
| Adam Larson | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 13.5% | 14.8% |
| Michael Kirkman | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 14.7% | 39.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.