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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.42+6.04vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.47+4.85vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.12+5.43vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.40+7.56vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.54+1.76vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+4.47vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University3.00+1.86vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.62+2.78vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara2.34+2.52vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-1.19vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University3.22-3.20vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-1.35vs Predicted
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13Boston College2.53-2.32vs Predicted
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14Boston University2.57-3.14vs Predicted
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15North Carolina State University2.01-2.06vs Predicted
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16Tulane University2.94-7.05vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College2.46-5.78vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-7.70vs Predicted
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19University of Wisconsin1.25-3.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.04Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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6.85Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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8.43Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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11.56U. S. Naval Academy2.400.0%1st Place
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6.76Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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10.47U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.0%1st Place
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8.86Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
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10.78Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
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11.52University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.0%1st Place
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8.81St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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7.8Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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10.65Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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10.68Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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10.86Boston University2.570.0%1st Place
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12.94North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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8.95Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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11.22Connecticut College2.460.0%1st Place
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10.3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.0%1st Place
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15.52University of Wisconsin1.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Nelson | 7.6% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Robert Bragg | 10.2% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Jack Egan | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% |
| Trenton Shaw | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 5.4% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 9.1% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Unangst | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 3.9% |
| Chris Kayda | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 5.6% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Mariner Fagan | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 2.7% |
| Michael Kirkman | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.3% |
| Tyler Mowry | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 3.7% |
| Adam Larson | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 12.6% | 15.8% |
| Cameron Giblin | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Walter Henry | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 5.1% |
| Will Murray | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 3.4% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 9.2% | 13.1% | 39.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.