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📊 Prediction Accuracy
15.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+9.61vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.54+4.58vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.42+4.10vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.62+6.57vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.12+3.53vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+4.32vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.40+4.54vs Predicted
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8North Carolina State University2.01+5.31vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-0.28vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+0.14vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara2.34+0.70vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College3.47-4.95vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College2.46-2.02vs Predicted
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14Boston College2.53-2.89vs Predicted
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15Georgetown University3.22-7.20vs Predicted
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16Tulane University2.94-6.98vs Predicted
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17Roger Williams University3.00-8.22vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin1.25-2.17vs Predicted
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19Boston University2.57-8.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.61U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.0%1st Place
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6.58Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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7.1Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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10.57Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
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8.53Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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10.32Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.0%1st Place
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11.54U. S. Naval Academy2.400.0%1st Place
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13.31North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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8.72St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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10.14Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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11.7University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.0%1st Place
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7.05Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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10.98Connecticut College2.460.0%1st Place
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11.11Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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7.8Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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9.02Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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8.78Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
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15.83University of Wisconsin1.250.0%1st Place
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10.31Boston University2.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Unangst | 3.1% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 3.5% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 11.3% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Connor Nelson | 10.0% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Trevor Davis | 3.4% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 2.8% |
| Jack Egan | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Will Murray | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.2% |
| Trenton Shaw | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 5.4% |
| Adam Larson | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 10.6% | 15.3% | 14.9% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 2.0% |
| Chris Kayda | 3.5% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.5% |
| Robert Bragg | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Walter Henry | 4.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.5% |
| Michael Kirkman | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 3.8% |
| Mariner Fagan | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| Cameron Giblin | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 1.4% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 0.6% |
| Charlie Herrick | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 42.7% |
| Tyler Mowry | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 3.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.