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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+9.63vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.00+6.87vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+5.97vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.62+6.51vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.42+2.22vs Predicted
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6Tulane University2.94+3.04vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University3.22+0.91vs Predicted
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8Boston University2.57+2.95vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College3.47-2.31vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+0.30vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.54-4.53vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy2.40-0.12vs Predicted
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13North Carolina State University2.01-0.08vs Predicted
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14Yale University3.12-5.54vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-4.91vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College2.46-4.89vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara2.34-5.27vs Predicted
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18Boston College2.53-7.22vs Predicted
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19University of Wisconsin1.25-3.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.63U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.0%1st Place
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8.87Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
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8.97St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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10.51Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
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7.22Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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9.04Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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7.91Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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10.95Boston University2.570.0%1st Place
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6.69Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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10.3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.0%1st Place
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6.47Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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11.88U. S. Naval Academy2.400.0%1st Place
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12.92North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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8.46Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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10.09Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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11.11Connecticut College2.460.0%1st Place
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11.73University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.0%1st Place
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10.78Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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15.46University of Wisconsin1.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Unangst | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| Trevor Davis | 3.3% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 2.9% |
| Connor Nelson | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Cameron Giblin | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.3% |
| Mariner Fagan | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| Tyler Mowry | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.1% |
| Robert Bragg | 11.2% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Will Murray | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 2.8% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 10.0% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Trenton Shaw | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 5.8% |
| Adam Larson | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 12.2% | 12.3% |
| Jack Egan | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.4% |
| Walter Henry | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 4.3% |
| Chris Kayda | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 7.2% |
| Michael Kirkman | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.1% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 12.7% | 39.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.