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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+9.27vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.42+4.94vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.22+4.72vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.54+2.33vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+5.38vs Predicted
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6Tulane University2.94+2.74vs Predicted
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7Yale University3.12+1.07vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.53+2.82vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-0.58vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.40+0.98vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University3.00-2.52vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin1.25+3.64vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.62-3.04vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College3.47-7.26vs Predicted
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15Boston University2.57-4.82vs Predicted
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16North Carolina State University2.01-3.36vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara2.34-5.65vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College0.66-1.11vs Predicted
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19Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-9.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.27U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.0%1st Place
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6.94Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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7.72Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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6.33Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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10.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.0%1st Place
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8.74Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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8.07Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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10.82Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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8.42St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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10.98U. S. Naval Academy2.400.0%1st Place
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8.48Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
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15.64University of Wisconsin1.250.0%1st Place
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9.96Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
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6.74Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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10.18Boston University2.570.0%1st Place
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12.64North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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11.35University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.0%1st Place
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16.89Connecticut College0.660.0%1st Place
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9.44Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Unangst | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 1.1% |
| Connor Nelson | 9.4% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Mariner Fagan | 8.8% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 10.8% | 11.0% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Will Murray | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 1.0% |
| Cameron Giblin | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Jack Egan | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Michael Kirkman | 4.6% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 2.6% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| Trenton Shaw | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 5.5% | 1.7% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Charlie Herrick | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 23.4% | 27.3% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 1.1% |
| Robert Bragg | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Mowry | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 1.5% |
| Adam Larson | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 6.7% |
| Chris Kayda | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 3.5% |
| Liam Gronda | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 18.4% | 49.8% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.