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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College2.53+9.88vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.47+4.87vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.42+4.13vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+6.63vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.40+6.75vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University3.00+2.75vs Predicted
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7Yale University3.12+1.38vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College2.46+3.51vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+1.01vs Predicted
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10Tulane University2.94-1.01vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-0.67vs Predicted
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12North Carolina State University2.01+1.53vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-4.42vs Predicted
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14Tufts University2.62-3.38vs Predicted
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15Georgetown University3.22-7.18vs Predicted
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16Harvard University3.54-9.56vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara2.34-5.26vs Predicted
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18Boston University2.57-7.42vs Predicted
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19University of Wisconsin1.25-3.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.88Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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6.87Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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7.13Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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10.63U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.0%1st Place
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11.75U. S. Naval Academy2.400.0%1st Place
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8.75Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
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8.38Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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11.51Connecticut College2.460.0%1st Place
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10.01Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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8.99Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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10.33Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.0%1st Place
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13.53North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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8.58St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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10.62Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
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7.82Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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6.44Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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11.74University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.0%1st Place
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10.58Boston University2.570.0%1st Place
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15.46University of Wisconsin1.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Kirkman | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% |
| Robert Bragg | 9.6% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 11.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Connor Nelson | 9.8% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Daniel Unangst | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 3.6% |
| Trenton Shaw | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 6.1% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 7.4% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 3.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 1.6% |
| Jack Egan | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| Walter Henry | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 6.4% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 2.4% |
| Cameron Giblin | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% |
| Will Murray | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.2% |
| Adam Larson | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 13.9% | 15.9% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 3.2% |
| Mariner Fagan | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Chris Kayda | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 7.2% |
| Tyler Mowry | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 3.4% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 8.4% | 15.8% | 37.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.