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📊 Prediction Accuracy
36.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+9.68vs Predicted
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2Tulane University2.94+7.14vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.47+3.87vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.42+3.02vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.62+5.82vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+4.30vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University3.22+0.91vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.54-1.24vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University3.00-0.35vs Predicted
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10Boston College2.53+0.87vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-2.14vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy2.40-0.13vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara2.34-1.53vs Predicted
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14North Carolina State University2.01-0.76vs Predicted
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15Boston University2.57-4.46vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-5.89vs Predicted
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17Yale University3.12-8.75vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College2.46-6.86vs Predicted
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19University of Wisconsin1.25-3.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.68U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.0%1st Place
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9.14Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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6.87Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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7.02Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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10.82Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
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10.3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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7.91Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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6.76Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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8.65Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
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10.87Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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8.86St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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11.87U. S. Naval Academy2.400.0%1st Place
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11.47University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.0%1st Place
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13.24North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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10.54Boston University2.570.0%1st Place
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10.11Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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8.25Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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11.14Connecticut College2.460.0%1st Place
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15.5University of Wisconsin1.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Unangst | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 4.5% |
| Cameron Giblin | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| Robert Bragg | 11.0% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| Connor Nelson | 8.1% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Trevor Davis | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 3.1% |
| Will Murray | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% |
| Mariner Fagan | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 10.7% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| Michael Kirkman | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 3.8% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Trenton Shaw | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 5.9% |
| Chris Kayda | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 5.9% |
| Adam Larson | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 9.6% | 13.7% | 13.8% |
| Tyler Mowry | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.1% |
| Sam Bruce | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 2.2% |
| Jack Egan | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Walter Henry | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 5.8% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 13.4% | 40.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.