← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Harvard University3.54+4.98vs Predicted
-
2Tulane University2.94+6.35vs Predicted
-
3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+6.67vs Predicted
-
4Georgetown University3.22+2.87vs Predicted
-
5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+2.94vs Predicted
-
6Tufts University2.62+3.51vs Predicted
-
7U. S. Naval Academy2.40+3.34vs Predicted
-
8Brown University3.42-1.85vs Predicted
-
9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+0.18vs Predicted
-
10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60-0.25vs Predicted
-
113.12-3.51vs Predicted
-
12Roger Williams University2.38-1.17vs Predicted
-
13Boston College2.53-3.31vs Predicted
-
14Boston University2.57-4.64vs Predicted
-
15University of California at Santa Barbara2.34-4.40vs Predicted
-
16North Carolina State University2.01-3.91vs Predicted
-
17University of Wisconsin1.25-2.27vs Predicted
-
18Connecticut College1.85-5.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.98Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
-
8.35Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
-
9.67Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.0%1st Place
-
6.87Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
-
7.94St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
-
9.51Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
-
10.34U. S. Naval Academy2.400.0%1st Place
-
6.15Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
-
9.18Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
-
9.75U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
-
7.493.120.1%1st Place
-
10.83Roger Williams University2.380.0%1st Place
-
9.69Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
-
9.36Boston University2.570.1%1st Place
-
10.6University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.0%1st Place
-
12.09North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
-
14.73University of Wisconsin1.250.0%1st Place
-
12.46Connecticut College1.850.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachlain McGranahan | 10.9% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Giblin | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| Will Murray | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 2.3% |
| Mariner Fagan | 10.0% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| Trevor Davis | 5.0% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 3.1% |
| Trenton Shaw | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% |
| Connor Nelson | 10.6% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.8% |
| Daniel Unangst | 5.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 2.5% |
| Jack Egan | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Mathieu Dale | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 5.7% |
| Michael Kirkman | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 3.0% |
| Tyler Mowry | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.0% |
| Chris Kayda | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 5.2% |
| Adam Larson | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 12.1% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 15.0% | 39.2% |
| Harris Padegs | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 14.1% | 13.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.