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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tulane University2.94+7.44vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.40+8.80vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.54+3.07vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+5.18vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.62+4.53vs Predicted
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63.12+1.55vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+1.05vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College2.46+2.19vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.38+1.59vs Predicted
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10Brown University3.42-3.50vs Predicted
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11North Carolina State University2.01+1.26vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University3.22-4.55vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-3.67vs Predicted
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14Boston College2.44-3.93vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara2.34-4.24vs Predicted
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16Boston University2.57-6.12vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin1.25-2.12vs Predicted
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18U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60-8.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.44Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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10.8U. S. Naval Academy2.400.0%1st Place
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6.07Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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9.18Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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9.53Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
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7.553.120.1%1st Place
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8.05St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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10.19Connecticut College2.460.0%1st Place
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10.59Roger Williams University2.380.0%1st Place
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6.5Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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12.26North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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7.45Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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9.33Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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10.07Boston College2.440.0%1st Place
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10.76University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.0%1st Place
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9.88Boston University2.570.0%1st Place
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14.88University of Wisconsin1.250.0%1st Place
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9.47U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Giblin | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 1.0% |
| Trenton Shaw | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.5% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 10.4% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.8% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 3.3% |
| Trevor Davis | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 2.9% |
| Jack Egan | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Walter Henry | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 3.8% |
| Mathieu Dale | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 3.9% |
| Connor Nelson | 10.9% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Adam Larson | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 12.4% | 14.6% |
| Mariner Fagan | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Will Murray | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 2.1% |
| Peter Busch | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 4.5% |
| Chris Kayda | 3.7% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.0% |
| Tyler Mowry | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 3.5% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 13.8% | 42.6% |
| Daniel Unangst | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 2.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.