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📊 Prediction Accuracy
36.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.99+6.52vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.25+8.65vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+10.89vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.40+1.89vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.43+5.15vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+2.92vs Predicted
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7Yale University3.29-0.65vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College2.82+0.52vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+0.86vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.38+0.01vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University2.93-3.35vs Predicted
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12Boston University2.07-0.27vs Predicted
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13Harvard University2.75-4.75vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College2.82-5.72vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.32-4.83vs Predicted
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16Tulane University2.56-6.88vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin0.13+0.19vs Predicted
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18St. Mary's College of Maryland2.03-6.56vs Predicted
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19North Carolina State University1.17-4.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.52U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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10.65Boston College2.250.0%1st Place
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13.89University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.0%1st Place
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5.89Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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10.15Tufts University2.430.0%1st Place
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8.92U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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6.35Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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8.52Connecticut College2.820.1%1st Place
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9.86Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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10.01Roger Williams University2.380.0%1st Place
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7.65Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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11.73Boston University2.070.0%1st Place
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8.25Harvard University2.750.1%1st Place
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8.28Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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10.17Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.320.0%1st Place
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9.12Tulane University2.560.1%1st Place
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17.19University of Wisconsin0.130.0%1st Place
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11.44St. Mary's College of Maryland2.030.0%1st Place
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14.42North Carolina State University1.170.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 7.1% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Jack Redmond | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 1.7% |
| Ted McDonough | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 8.8% | 13.9% | 19.4% | 11.7% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 12.3% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 1.1% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Stephan Baker | 10.1% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 7.5% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| Oliver Stokke | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 0.9% |
| Scott Mais | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Micky Munns | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 7.0% | 1.7% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| William Michels | 6.7% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Maks Groom | 4.3% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 1.7% |
| Peter Foley III | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Phineas Tait | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 11.6% | 61.3% |
| Felix Cutler | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 3.0% |
| Harrison Bailey | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 13.6% | 21.2% | 14.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.