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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.40+4.92vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+7.02vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.93+4.79vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College2.82+4.15vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.99+2.67vs Predicted
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6Boston University2.07+5.23vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+6.90vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.43+2.08vs Predicted
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9Tulane University2.56+0.10vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-0.09vs Predicted
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11Harvard University2.75-2.59vs Predicted
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12Boston College2.25-1.00vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University2.38-3.19vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.32-3.58vs Predicted
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15Dartmouth College2.82-6.90vs Predicted
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16Yale University3.29-9.84vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland2.03-5.48vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin0.13-0.59vs Predicted
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19North Carolina State University1.17-4.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.92Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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9.02U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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7.79Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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8.15Connecticut College2.820.1%1st Place
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7.67U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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11.23Boston University2.070.0%1st Place
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13.9University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.0%1st Place
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10.08Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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9.1Tulane University2.560.1%1st Place
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9.91Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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8.41Harvard University2.750.1%1st Place
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11.0Boston College2.250.0%1st Place
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9.81Roger Williams University2.380.0%1st Place
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10.42Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.320.0%1st Place
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8.1Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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6.16Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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11.52St. Mary's College of Maryland2.030.0%1st Place
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17.41University of Wisconsin0.130.0%1st Place
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14.41North Carolina State University1.170.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam O'Keefe | 11.8% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Scott Mais | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Micky Munns | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 3.3% |
| Ted McDonough | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 10.1% | 14.4% | 18.7% | 9.8% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 1.3% |
| Peter Foley III | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.4% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 0.8% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Jack Redmond | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 5.0% | 1.2% |
| Oliver Stokke | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 1.4% |
| Maks Groom | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 0.9% |
| William Michels | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Stephan Baker | 10.5% | 8.9% | 13.0% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Felix Cutler | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 3.2% |
| Phineas Tait | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 13.5% | 60.8% |
| Harrison Bailey | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 13.8% | 19.7% | 14.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.