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📊 Prediction Accuracy
15.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.29+5.31vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.25+8.61vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.38+7.17vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.99+3.45vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+4.25vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College2.82+2.18vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.93+0.69vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.03+3.67vs Predicted
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9Brown University3.40-3.24vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College2.82-2.05vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+2.90vs Predicted
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12Tufts University2.43-1.78vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-3.26vs Predicted
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14Boston University2.07-2.53vs Predicted
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15Harvard University2.75-6.64vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.32-5.84vs Predicted
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17Tulane University2.56-7.78vs Predicted
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18North Carolina State University1.17-3.19vs Predicted
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19University of Wisconsin0.13-1.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.31Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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10.61Boston College2.250.0%1st Place
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10.17Roger Williams University2.380.0%1st Place
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7.45U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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9.25U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.0%1st Place
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8.18Connecticut College2.820.1%1st Place
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7.69Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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11.67St. Mary's College of Maryland2.030.0%1st Place
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5.76Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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7.95Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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13.9University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.0%1st Place
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10.22Tufts University2.430.0%1st Place
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9.74Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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11.47Boston University2.070.0%1st Place
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8.36Harvard University2.750.1%1st Place
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10.16Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.320.0%1st Place
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9.22Tulane University2.560.0%1st Place
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14.81North Carolina State University1.170.0%1st Place
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17.06University of Wisconsin0.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 9.2% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jack Redmond | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 1.5% |
| Oliver Stokke | 4.7% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 1.8% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Scott Mais | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Felix Cutler | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 3.7% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 13.1% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| William Michels | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Ted McDonough | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 12.9% | 19.0% | 10.2% |
| Ben Mueller | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.0% |
| Micky Munns | 3.7% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 2.2% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Maks Groom | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 1.3% |
| Peter Foley III | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Harrison Bailey | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 24.0% | 16.2% |
| Phineas Tait | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 7.6% | 12.4% | 58.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.