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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University2.75+7.17vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College2.82+5.88vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+10.26vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+4.37vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.40+0.63vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.93+1.25vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.25+2.99vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.38+1.37vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+0.35vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.32-0.03vs Predicted
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11Tufts University2.43-1.56vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College2.82-4.00vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy2.99-6.14vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland2.03-3.45vs Predicted
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15Yale University3.29-9.08vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin0.13+0.39vs Predicted
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17North Carolina State University1.17-2.93vs Predicted
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18Boston University2.07-7.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.17Harvard University2.750.1%1st Place
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7.88Connecticut College2.820.1%1st Place
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13.26University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.0%1st Place
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8.37U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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5.63Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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7.25Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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9.99Boston College2.250.0%1st Place
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9.37Roger Williams University2.380.0%1st Place
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9.35Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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9.97Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.320.0%1st Place
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9.44Tufts University2.430.0%1st Place
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8.0Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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6.86U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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10.55St. Mary's College of Maryland2.030.0%1st Place
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5.92Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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16.39University of Wisconsin0.130.0%1st Place
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14.07North Carolina State University1.170.0%1st Place
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10.54Boston University2.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Ascencios | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Ted McDonough | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 13.8% | 22.9% | 8.2% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 13.5% | 13.1% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Scott Mais | 7.3% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Jack Redmond | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 1.5% |
| Oliver Stokke | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 0.6% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 0.7% |
| Maks Groom | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 1.2% |
| Ben Mueller | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| William Michels | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Felix Cutler | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 2.4% |
| Stephan Baker | 11.3% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Phineas Tait | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 7.3% | 13.2% | 61.9% |
| Harrison Bailey | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 13.0% | 23.0% | 18.4% |
| Micky Munns | 4.5% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 6.2% | 2.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.