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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University2.75+7.04vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.40+3.59vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.82+4.69vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.29+1.79vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.99+1.92vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.93+1.13vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+1.29vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College2.82-0.59vs Predicted
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9Boston College2.25+0.72vs Predicted
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10Tufts University2.43-0.66vs Predicted
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11Boston University2.07-0.41vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.32-2.20vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-3.95vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara1.42-1.45vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University2.38-5.79vs Predicted
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16North Carolina State University1.17-2.22vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland1.08-2.96vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin0.13-1.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.04Harvard University2.750.1%1st Place
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5.59Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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7.69Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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5.79Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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6.92U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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7.13Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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8.29U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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7.41Connecticut College2.820.1%1st Place
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9.72Boston College2.250.0%1st Place
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9.34Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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10.59Boston University2.070.0%1st Place
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9.8Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.320.0%1st Place
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9.05Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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12.55University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.0%1st Place
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9.21Roger Williams University2.380.0%1st Place
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13.78North Carolina State University1.170.0%1st Place
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14.04St. Mary's College of Maryland1.080.0%1st Place
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16.07University of Wisconsin0.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Ascencios | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 10.3% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Michels | 7.0% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Stephan Baker | 12.8% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.6% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Scott Mais | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Jack Redmond | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Micky Munns | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 2.6% |
| Maks Groom | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 1.3% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Ted McDonough | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 11.0% | 15.1% | 12.6% | 8.4% |
| Oliver Stokke | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Harrison Bailey | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 10.7% | 14.0% | 20.6% | 13.8% |
| Max Kleha | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 23.4% | 16.5% |
| Phineas Tait | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 8.1% | 16.9% | 53.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.