← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
36.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Brown University2.31+5.17vs Predicted
-
2Fairfield University1.06+9.39vs Predicted
-
3Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.61+6.07vs Predicted
-
4Roger Williams University1.63+4.92vs Predicted
-
5Salve Regina University1.31+5.52vs Predicted
-
6Dartmouth College2.45-0.36vs Predicted
-
7Bowdoin College1.55+2.29vs Predicted
-
8Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73+0.73vs Predicted
-
9Salve Regina University1.74-0.72vs Predicted
-
10Tufts University1.66-1.30vs Predicted
-
11Northeastern University2.00-3.67vs Predicted
-
12Dartmouth College1.64-2.86vs Predicted
-
13University of New Hampshire1.02-1.67vs Predicted
-
14Maine Maritime Academy0.79-1.39vs Predicted
-
15Boston University1.36-4.96vs Predicted
-
16University of Vermont1.11-4.97vs Predicted
-
17Tufts University1.51-7.57vs Predicted
-
18Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.18-3.30vs Predicted
-
19University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.27-1.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.17Brown University2.310.1%1st Place
-
11.39Fairfield University1.060.0%1st Place
-
9.07Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.610.1%1st Place
-
8.92Roger Williams University1.630.0%1st Place
-
10.52Salve Regina University1.310.0%1st Place
-
5.64Dartmouth College2.450.2%1st Place
-
9.29Bowdoin College1.550.0%1st Place
-
8.73Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.1%1st Place
-
8.28Salve Regina University1.740.1%1st Place
-
8.7Tufts University1.660.1%1st Place
-
7.33Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
-
9.14Dartmouth College1.640.1%1st Place
-
11.33University of New Hampshire1.020.0%1st Place
-
12.61Maine Maritime Academy0.790.0%1st Place
-
10.04Boston University1.360.0%1st Place
-
11.03University of Vermont1.110.0%1st Place
-
9.43Tufts University1.510.0%1st Place
-
14.7Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.180.0%1st Place
-
17.7University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Styron | 9.7% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 2.1% |
| Emily Scherer | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| William Bailey | 4.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 1.3% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 15.4% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Chance | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Nils Tullberg | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Matthew Wallace | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Hurley | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Grace Cannon | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 1.9% |
| Nalu Ho | 3.0% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 13.3% | 4.6% |
| Nathan Selian | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 1.5% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 1.4% |
| Adrien Bellanger | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 0.4% |
| John Divelbiss | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 12.8% | 23.0% | 14.3% |
| Andy Giaya | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 12.2% | 69.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.