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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+9.16vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.40+9.57vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.85+5.99vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island2.78+6.62vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.73+2.15vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.15+0.67vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.75+1.32vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+1.59vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+2.25vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College2.90-1.86vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston2.49-1.31vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College2.06-1.41vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University2.45-3.73vs Predicted
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14Tulane University2.04-2.53vs Predicted
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15Harvard University3.05-7.46vs Predicted
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16Tufts University2.12-5.27vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy2.60-7.51vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-8.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.16U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.484.6%1st Place
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11.57Boston College2.402.9%1st Place
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8.99Brown University2.855.7%1st Place
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10.62University of Rhode Island2.783.6%1st Place
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7.15Yale University2.738.2%1st Place
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6.67Stanford University3.1510.8%1st Place
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8.32Georgetown University2.757.5%1st Place
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9.59St. Mary's College of Maryland2.574.6%1st Place
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11.25Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.163.9%1st Place
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8.14Dartmouth College2.907.6%1st Place
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9.69College of Charleston2.495.1%1st Place
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10.59Bowdoin College2.064.2%1st Place
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9.27Roger Williams University2.455.8%1st Place
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11.47Tulane University2.043.4%1st Place
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7.54Harvard University3.058.5%1st Place
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10.73Tufts University2.123.8%1st Place
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9.49U. S. Naval Academy2.604.8%1st Place
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9.75Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.315.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colman Schofield | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 12.7% |
| Connor Nelson | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.3% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 9.8% |
| Jack Egan | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 10.8% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Mariner Fagan | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 1.9% |
| Owen Hennessey | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.5% |
| Will Murray | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 12.2% |
| Robert Bragg | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.7% |
| Noah Zittrer | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.2% |
| Sam Bonauto | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.4% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.3% |
| Thad Lettsome | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 11.5% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 8.5% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Trevor Davis | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% |
| Nathan Smith | 4.8% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.