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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.81+4.57vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.10+2.77vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.03+1.96vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.33+0.28vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island1.83+3.96vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95+2.52vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.37+3.45vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.90+0.53vs Predicted
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9Yale University2.39-2.07vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.06-1.84vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College0.96+0.55vs Predicted
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12Washington College0.21+1.49vs Predicted
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13George Washington University2.35-5.96vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.78-5.11vs Predicted
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15Boston University1.60-5.28vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-0.11-1.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.57Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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4.77Roger Williams University3.100.2%1st Place
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4.96Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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4.28Brown University3.330.2%1st Place
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8.96University of Rhode Island1.830.0%1st Place
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8.52U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
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10.45Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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8.53Tufts University1.900.0%1st Place
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6.93Yale University2.390.1%1st Place
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8.16Roger Williams University2.060.1%1st Place
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11.55Connecticut College0.960.0%1st Place
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13.49Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
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7.04George Washington University2.350.1%1st Place
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8.89Fordham University1.780.0%1st Place
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9.72Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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14.19Princeton University-0.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Hall | 10.9% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Carlos de Castro | 15.2% | 13.9% | 13.2% | 11.6% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 14.9% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Guthrie Braun | 16.8% | 16.5% | 12.9% | 13.1% | 11.5% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Riley | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.8% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 15.0% | 11.7% | 3.6% |
| Shea Smith | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 0.9% |
| Nathan Sih | 7.5% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| George Higham | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 8.5% | 12.2% | 16.2% | 15.6% | 10.9% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 10.8% | 23.7% | 32.8% |
| Owen Timms | 5.9% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Beckett Kumler | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 0.9% |
| Porter Bell | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 6.5% | 1.8% |
| Richard Kertatos | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 22.9% | 45.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.