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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.33+3.10vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95+6.37vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University3.10+1.80vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College0.96+7.70vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.39+2.02vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.06+2.19vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island1.83+1.93vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.37+2.30vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.78-0.08vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.81-4.32vs Predicted
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11Washington College0.21+2.38vs Predicted
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12George Washington University2.35-4.88vs Predicted
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13Harvard University3.03-8.04vs Predicted
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14Tufts University1.90-5.46vs Predicted
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15Boston University1.60-5.21vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-0.11-1.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.1Brown University3.330.2%1st Place
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8.37U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
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4.8Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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11.7Connecticut College0.960.0%1st Place
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7.02Yale University2.390.1%1st Place
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8.19Roger Williams University2.060.1%1st Place
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8.93University of Rhode Island1.830.1%1st Place
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10.3Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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8.92Fordham University1.780.0%1st Place
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5.68Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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13.38Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
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7.12George Washington University2.350.1%1st Place
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4.96Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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8.54Tufts University1.900.0%1st Place
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9.79Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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14.2Princeton University-0.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guthrie Braun | 19.2% | 17.0% | 15.5% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.9% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| Carlos de Castro | 13.8% | 14.6% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 17.2% | 17.8% | 9.9% |
| Nathan Sih | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| George Higham | 5.4% | 3.0% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Jonathan Riley | 5.1% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 1.3% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 14.0% | 10.1% | 2.9% |
| Beckett Kumler | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 1.6% |
| Thomas Hall | 10.4% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 12.8% | 22.9% | 32.6% |
| Owen Timms | 6.7% | 5.7% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 13.5% | 14.7% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Shea Smith | 4.1% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 0.7% |
| Porter Bell | 2.8% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 6.6% | 2.2% |
| Richard Kertatos | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 9.2% | 22.1% | 46.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.