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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island1.83+7.70vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.33+2.18vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.90+5.55vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.39+3.06vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.81+0.68vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95+2.54vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University3.10-2.12vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.78+0.90vs Predicted
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9Harvard University3.03-4.01vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.06-1.83vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.37-0.70vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College0.96-0.43vs Predicted
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13Washington College0.21+0.51vs Predicted
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14George Washington University2.35-7.02vs Predicted
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15Boston University1.60-5.23vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-0.11-1.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.7University of Rhode Island1.830.0%1st Place
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4.18Brown University3.330.2%1st Place
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8.55Tufts University1.900.0%1st Place
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7.06Yale University2.390.1%1st Place
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5.68Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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8.54U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
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4.88Roger Williams University3.100.2%1st Place
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8.9Fordham University1.780.0%1st Place
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4.99Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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8.17Roger Williams University2.060.1%1st Place
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10.3Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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11.57Connecticut College0.960.0%1st Place
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13.51Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
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6.98George Washington University2.350.1%1st Place
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9.77Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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14.22Princeton University-0.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Riley | 2.9% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 1.1% |
| Guthrie Braun | 18.9% | 16.7% | 14.7% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shea Smith | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| Nathan Sih | 6.0% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Thomas Hall | 10.5% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| Carlos de Castro | 15.3% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Beckett Kumler | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 1.2% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 13.2% | 12.9% | 13.3% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| George Higham | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Joshua Dillon | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 11.0% | 3.3% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 15.2% | 16.7% | 10.8% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 13.4% | 24.9% | 31.1% |
| Owen Timms | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Porter Bell | 2.9% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 1.4% |
| Richard Kertatos | 0.1% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 11.1% | 20.3% | 47.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.