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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.39+5.67vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.33+2.05vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+6.39vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island1.83+4.81vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.78+3.85vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.90+2.52vs Predicted
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7Harvard University3.03-2.08vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University3.10-3.42vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95-0.82vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.81-4.42vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.06-3.09vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College0.96-0.62vs Predicted
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13Washington College0.21+0.39vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.60-4.65vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.37-4.69vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-0.11-1.89vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.67Yale University2.390.1%1st Place
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4.05Brown University3.330.2%1st Place
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9.39St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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8.81University of Rhode Island1.830.0%1st Place
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8.85Fordham University1.780.0%1st Place
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8.52Tufts University1.900.0%1st Place
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4.92Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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4.58Roger Williams University3.100.2%1st Place
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8.18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
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5.58Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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7.91Roger Williams University2.060.1%1st Place
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11.38Connecticut College0.960.0%1st Place
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13.39Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
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9.35Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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10.31Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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14.11Princeton University-0.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Sih | 6.3% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Guthrie Braun | 20.4% | 16.3% | 15.0% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 2.1% |
| Jonathan Riley | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 1.3% |
| Beckett Kumler | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 1.0% |
| Shea Smith | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 0.8% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 14.1% | 12.4% | 13.2% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Carlos de Castro | 15.5% | 14.7% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 4.4% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Thomas Hall | 10.5% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 12.4% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| George Higham | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 0.3% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 13.9% | 14.2% | 11.0% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 12.6% | 24.0% | 30.6% |
| Porter Bell | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 5.8% | 2.2% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 12.9% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 3.3% |
| Richard Kertatos | 0.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 10.3% | 20.2% | 46.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.