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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+8.73vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.73+4.68vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.18+2.03vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.38+4.60vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.60+2.07vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.78+2.76vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+1.59vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute1.73+1.23vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania1.77+0.30vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.82-0.89vs Predicted
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11Florida State University1.69-0.46vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-2.05vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University2.68-5.55vs Predicted
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14Tulane University2.28-5.74vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College1.20-2.30vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University1.59-2.24vs Predicted
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17Eckerd College1.17-4.96vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan0.68-3.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.73Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.315.1%1st Place
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6.68Brown University2.739.5%1st Place
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5.03Harvard University3.1815.3%1st Place
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8.6Cornell University2.386.0%1st Place
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7.07U. S. Naval Academy2.6010.4%1st Place
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8.76University of Rhode Island2.785.3%1st Place
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8.59St. Mary's College of Maryland2.575.7%1st Place
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9.23Webb Institute1.735.0%1st Place
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9.3University of Pennsylvania1.775.2%1st Place
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9.11George Washington University1.824.5%1st Place
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10.54Florida State University1.693.5%1st Place
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9.95Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.773.6%1st Place
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7.45Roger Williams University2.687.7%1st Place
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8.26Tulane University2.286.2%1st Place
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12.7Connecticut College1.202.2%1st Place
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13.76Northeastern University1.591.6%1st Place
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12.04Eckerd College1.171.8%1st Place
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14.19University of Michigan0.681.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bruce | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.5% |
| Guthrie Braun | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Justin Callahan | 15.3% | 15.0% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Nathan Smith | 10.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Rayne Duff | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.7% |
| Sofia Segalla | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 1.8% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 1.7% |
| Peter Foley | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 4.9% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.0% |
| Carlos de Castro | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Kelly Holthus | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Skylor Sweet | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 14.1% | 15.3% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 17.2% | 22.8% |
| Jordan Vieira | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 12.4% | 11.2% |
| Jack Homa | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 10.7% | 15.6% | 30.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.