Race 4A

old-guard

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Fred Strammer 11.5% 13.8% 10.5% 9.6% 11.8% 7.5% 8.2% 6.6% 5.9% 5.5% 3.9% 2.4% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Thomas Barrows 16.5% 16.3% 14.2% 10.8% 9.0% 7.3% 7.6% 6.2% 5.3% 2.4% 1.9% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Anne Haeger 12.0% 9.0% 11.6% 9.5% 9.7% 8.8% 9.5% 7.8% 7.4% 5.1% 3.7% 2.7% 2.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
Johnny Norfleet 4.8% 7.4% 6.9% 6.5% 6.8% 7.3% 7.8% 8.9% 7.1% 8.2% 8.6% 6.6% 6.2% 5.1% 1.7% 0.1%
Krysta Rohde 3.2% 3.3% 3.5% 4.6% 4.9% 4.5% 5.9% 7.4% 7.8% 7.3% 9.4% 7.3% 11.8% 10.5% 7.2% 1.4%
Rebecca Dellenbaugh 5.0% 4.6% 6.9% 7.6% 6.4% 8.7% 6.3% 7.0% 8.2% 8.2% 8.2% 8.3% 6.0% 4.9% 3.3% 0.4%
Alan Palmer 13.8% 10.4% 9.3% 11.1% 9.1% 9.5% 7.7% 7.1% 7.8% 4.8% 4.0% 3.1% 1.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Halsey Richartz 4.6% 5.9% 5.8% 5.9% 5.9% 6.6% 7.1% 8.1% 7.6% 7.5% 9.1% 8.4% 6.9% 6.2% 4.1% 0.3%
Peter Pellegrini 6.4% 7.4% 6.8% 8.0% 7.3% 7.8% 8.9% 7.4% 8.2% 7.5% 5.8% 6.8% 5.3% 4.0% 2.1% 0.3%
Brendan Hannon 2.6% 2.2% 3.0% 2.9% 2.4% 3.3% 3.9% 4.3% 5.0% 5.8% 7.8% 9.3% 14.2% 15.5% 13.3% 4.5%
Vincent Andrews 2.8% 2.4% 2.9% 3.0% 3.2% 4.3% 4.0% 3.7% 4.3% 7.4% 8.1% 10.2% 10.8% 13.1% 15.7% 4.1%
Gary Herring 4.3% 3.5% 4.3% 4.6% 6.2% 6.3% 5.0% 7.5% 7.0% 7.6% 8.8% 8.5% 9.2% 10.7% 5.8% 0.7%
Andrew Sommer 5.4% 6.9% 8.0% 7.5% 7.5% 7.9% 9.2% 7.7% 7.0% 8.4% 7.2% 6.3% 5.0% 3.7% 2.2% 0.1%
Massimo Soriano 5.4% 4.9% 5.6% 6.1% 8.1% 7.8% 6.3% 8.2% 7.6% 8.9% 7.4% 8.5% 7.5% 5.2% 1.9% 0.6%
Kelly Cooke 1.6% 1.5% 0.7% 1.8% 1.4% 1.6% 2.3% 1.7% 2.9% 4.2% 4.6% 7.9% 7.6% 14.0% 32.1% 14.1%
Michael Weigand 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.4% 0.9% 1.2% 1.5% 1.8% 3.5% 4.5% 10.3% 73.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.