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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tulane University2.28+8.54vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.03+10.74vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.78+7.75vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.05+3.63vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.60+4.58vs Predicted
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6Yale University2.73+1.07vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+3.03vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston2.49+1.60vs Predicted
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9Boston College2.40+2.48vs Predicted
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10Brown University2.85-1.29vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University2.75-2.59vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College2.90-3.88vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University2.45-3.58vs Predicted
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14Stanford University3.15-7.50vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-3.78vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-6.39vs Predicted
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17Tufts University2.12-6.28vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-8.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.54Tulane University2.284.9%1st Place
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12.74Bowdoin College2.032.1%1st Place
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10.75University of Rhode Island2.783.5%1st Place
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7.63Harvard University3.057.3%1st Place
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9.58U. S. Naval Academy2.604.7%1st Place
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7.07Yale University2.738.9%1st Place
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10.03U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.484.9%1st Place
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9.6College of Charleston2.495.5%1st Place
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11.48Boston College2.403.9%1st Place
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8.71Brown University2.856.2%1st Place
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8.41Georgetown University2.757.2%1st Place
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8.12Dartmouth College2.908.0%1st Place
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9.42Roger Williams University2.455.1%1st Place
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6.5Stanford University3.1510.2%1st Place
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11.22Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.163.5%1st Place
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9.61St. Mary's College of Maryland2.574.7%1st Place
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10.72Tufts University2.124.3%1st Place
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9.87Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.315.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holthus | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% |
| Thibault Antonietti | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 11.7% | 21.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.6% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Nathan Smith | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.2% |
| Jack Egan | 8.9% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% |
| Colman Schofield | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% |
| Noah Zittrer | 5.5% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.2% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 12.7% |
| Connor Nelson | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.5% |
| Mariner Fagan | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.1% |
| Robert Bragg | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.4% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 2.6% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 10.2% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Will Murray | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 12.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.5% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.