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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.93+5.32vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.93+4.32vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.91+3.51vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.76+3.06vs Predicted
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5Princeton University2.35+0.13vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.09-0.01vs Predicted
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7University of Miami1.86-0.29vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.89-1.58vs Predicted
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9SUNY Stony Brook-0.55+4.52vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.09-4.00vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College0.97-1.49vs Predicted
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12California Poly Maritime Academy1.43-3.94vs Predicted
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13Washington College-0.61+0.70vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.24-2.31vs Predicted
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15University of Virginia-0.31-1.83vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont0.90-6.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.32Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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6.32Tufts University1.930.1%1st Place
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6.51Webb Institute1.910.1%1st Place
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7.06U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.760.1%1st Place
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5.13Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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5.99University of Pennsylvania2.090.1%1st Place
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6.71University of Miami1.860.1%1st Place
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6.42Fordham University1.890.1%1st Place
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13.52SUNY Stony Brook-0.550.0%1st Place
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6.0Old Dominion University2.090.1%1st Place
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9.51SUNY Maritime College0.970.0%1st Place
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8.06California Poly Maritime Academy1.430.1%1st Place
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13.7Washington College-0.610.0%1st Place
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11.69Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.240.0%1st Place
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13.17University of Virginia-0.310.0%1st Place
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9.89University of Vermont0.900.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Smith | 8.7% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Clark Morris | 9.4% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Rayne Duff | 9.4% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Luke Zylinski | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Connor Mraz | 12.3% | 13.9% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Gavula | 8.8% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Steven Hardee | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Connor Bennett | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Magill | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 9.8% | 13.8% | 24.3% | 30.4% |
| Andrew Ciszewski | 10.6% | 7.5% | 11.4% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Finn Mahan | 4.0% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 5.2% | 1.2% |
| Clay Myers | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Hartley Meyer | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 8.7% | 14.5% | 22.3% | 33.1% |
| Andy Leshaw | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 10.9% | 14.9% | 16.8% | 13.1% | 9.3% |
| Hannah Mercurio | 1.0% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 10.7% | 17.3% | 22.9% | 23.4% |
| Luke Quine | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 6.6% | 1.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.