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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Webb Institute1.91+5.36vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.93+4.32vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.76+3.95vs Predicted
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4Princeton University2.35+1.18vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.09+0.91vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.93+0.53vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.09-1.02vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.24+3.62vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.89-2.48vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College0.97-0.36vs Predicted
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11California Poly Maritime Academy1.43-2.96vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont0.90-2.24vs Predicted
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13Washington College-0.61+0.71vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.55-0.45vs Predicted
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15University of Virginia-0.31-1.79vs Predicted
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16University of Miami1.86-9.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.36Webb Institute1.910.1%1st Place
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6.32Tufts University1.930.1%1st Place
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6.95U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.760.1%1st Place
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5.18Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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5.91University of Pennsylvania2.090.1%1st Place
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6.53Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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5.98Old Dominion University2.090.1%1st Place
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11.62Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.240.0%1st Place
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6.52Fordham University1.890.1%1st Place
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9.64SUNY Maritime College0.970.0%1st Place
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8.04California Poly Maritime Academy1.430.1%1st Place
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9.76University of Vermont0.900.0%1st Place
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13.71Washington College-0.610.0%1st Place
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13.55SUNY Stony Brook-0.550.0%1st Place
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13.21University of Virginia-0.310.0%1st Place
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6.71University of Miami1.860.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayne Duff | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Clark Morris | 9.0% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Luke Zylinski | 8.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Connor Mraz | 13.2% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Gavula | 9.6% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 7.5% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Andrew Ciszewski | 11.3% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Andy Leshaw | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 15.2% | 16.6% | 17.1% | 6.3% |
| Connor Bennett | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Finn Mahan | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 10.1% | 4.8% | 1.4% |
| Clay Myers | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Luke Quine | 3.2% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 6.5% | 2.4% |
| Hartley Meyer | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 9.3% | 13.7% | 22.3% | 33.5% |
| Ryan Magill | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 9.6% | 14.9% | 21.4% | 31.3% |
| Hannah Mercurio | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 6.7% | 10.1% | 18.5% | 22.2% | 23.5% |
| Steven Hardee | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.