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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.09+4.92vs Predicted
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2Princeton University2.35+3.18vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.91+3.54vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University2.09+2.13vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.76+2.11vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.93+0.58vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.93-0.39vs Predicted
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8University of Miami1.86-1.35vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.89-2.36vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia-0.31+3.20vs Predicted
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11SUNY Stony Brook-0.55+2.54vs Predicted
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12Washington College-0.61+1.79vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont1.38-4.71vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College0.97-4.40vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.24-3.06vs Predicted
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16California Poly Maritime Academy1.43-7.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.92University of Pennsylvania2.090.1%1st Place
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5.18Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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6.54Webb Institute1.910.1%1st Place
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6.13Old Dominion University2.090.1%1st Place
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7.11U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.760.1%1st Place
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6.58Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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6.61Tufts University1.930.1%1st Place
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6.65University of Miami1.860.1%1st Place
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6.64Fordham University1.890.1%1st Place
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13.2University of Virginia-0.310.0%1st Place
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13.54SUNY Stony Brook-0.550.0%1st Place
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13.79Washington College-0.610.0%1st Place
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8.29University of Vermont1.380.0%1st Place
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9.6SUNY Maritime College0.970.0%1st Place
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11.94Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.240.0%1st Place
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8.29California Poly Maritime Academy1.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Gavula | 10.0% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 13.1% | 14.5% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Rayne Duff | 10.0% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Ciszewski | 8.7% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Luke Zylinski | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 7.7% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Clark Morris | 9.6% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Steven Hardee | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Connor Bennett | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Hannah Mercurio | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 5.6% | 10.3% | 17.9% | 27.0% | 20.8% |
| Ryan Magill | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 8.3% | 14.9% | 22.7% | 32.1% |
| Hartley Meyer | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 9.2% | 14.5% | 20.9% | 35.9% |
| Alvaro Nadal-Alvarez | 3.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Finn Mahan | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 12.5% | 13.3% | 9.0% | 5.6% | 1.1% |
| Andy Leshaw | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 15.0% | 19.5% | 15.0% | 9.1% |
| Clay Myers | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.