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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49+4.67vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University5.19+1.68vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+1.52vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania3.63+4.12vs Predicted
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5University of Virginia3.54+3.47vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.89+4.92vs Predicted
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7Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+4.31vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University3.76-0.27vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy4.34-3.21vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.44-0.86vs Predicted
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11Washington College3.65-2.72vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.73-0.37vs Predicted
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13George Washington University2.84-2.16vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College4.15-7.73vs Predicted
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15Princeton University1.10+0.74vs Predicted
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16Columbia University2.34-3.30vs Predicted
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17Hamilton College0.85-0.75vs Predicted
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18Hampton University1.84-4.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.67Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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3.68Georgetown University5.190.2%1st Place
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4.52St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.2%1st Place
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8.12University of Pennsylvania3.630.1%1st Place
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8.47University of Virginia3.540.0%1st Place
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10.92Cornell University2.890.0%1st Place
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11.31Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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7.73Old Dominion University3.760.1%1st Place
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5.79U. S. Naval Academy4.340.1%1st Place
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9.14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.440.0%1st Place
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8.28Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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11.63Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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10.84George Washington University2.840.0%1st Place
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6.27SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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15.74Princeton University1.100.0%1st Place
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12.7Columbia University2.340.0%1st Place
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16.25Hamilton College0.850.0%1st Place
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13.94Hampton University1.840.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Blouin | 11.2% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Buckingham | 19.0% | 19.8% | 15.4% | 13.7% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Menninger | 15.7% | 13.1% | 14.4% | 12.3% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Halsey Richartz | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 4.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Vincent Andrews | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 1.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 13.3% | 11.2% | 8.2% | 4.7% | 1.6% |
| Stephanie Roble | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Robert Vann | 9.1% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eric Horrocks | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Michael Whitford | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| Alexander Sachs | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 7.2% | 1.7% |
| William Ricketson | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| Shawn Murray | 9.1% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gavin Schlissel | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 13.0% | 25.8% | 32.9% |
| Billy Hines | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 12.5% | 13.5% | 11.7% | 3.9% |
| William McIvor | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 20.8% | 47.8% |
| Andrew Shoemaker | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 13.2% | 18.1% | 19.1% | 9.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.