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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.09+4.83vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.93+4.40vs Predicted
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3University of Miami1.86+3.73vs Predicted
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4Princeton University2.35+1.27vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.09+0.99vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute1.69+1.36vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.89-0.30vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College0.97+1.57vs Predicted
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9SUNY Stony Brook-0.55+4.55vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia-0.31+3.17vs Predicted
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11Washington College-0.61+2.64vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.24-0.18vs Predicted
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13California Poly Maritime Academy1.43-4.91vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont1.38-5.84vs Predicted
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15Tufts University1.93-8.44vs Predicted
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16U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.76-8.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.83University of Pennsylvania2.090.1%1st Place
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6.4Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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6.73University of Miami1.860.1%1st Place
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5.27Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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5.99Old Dominion University2.090.1%1st Place
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7.36Webb Institute1.690.1%1st Place
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6.7Fordham University1.890.1%1st Place
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9.57SUNY Maritime College0.970.0%1st Place
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13.55SUNY Stony Brook-0.550.0%1st Place
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13.17University of Virginia-0.310.0%1st Place
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13.64Washington College-0.610.0%1st Place
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11.82Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.240.0%1st Place
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8.09California Poly Maritime Academy1.430.0%1st Place
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8.16University of Vermont1.380.1%1st Place
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6.56Tufts University1.930.1%1st Place
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7.14U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.760.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Gavula | 10.8% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 9.1% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Steven Hardee | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Connor Mraz | 13.2% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Ciszewski | 9.7% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Connor Bennett | 10.3% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Finn Mahan | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 2.2% |
| Ryan Magill | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 9.0% | 16.7% | 23.8% | 29.9% |
| Hannah Mercurio | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 11.0% | 17.5% | 26.7% | 20.8% |
| Hartley Meyer | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 8.0% | 14.5% | 20.9% | 35.6% |
| Andy Leshaw | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 13.7% | 17.9% | 15.4% | 10.2% |
| Clay Myers | 3.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Alvaro Nadal-Alvarez | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Clark Morris | 9.1% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Luke Zylinski | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.