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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+3.62vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49+3.62vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University5.19+0.63vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.89+6.69vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University3.76+2.78vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy4.34-0.08vs Predicted
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7Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+4.29vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania3.63+0.18vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.73+2.36vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College4.15-3.33vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.84+0.10vs Predicted
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12Hampton University1.84+2.28vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.44-4.23vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia3.54-5.66vs Predicted
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15Washington College3.65-6.83vs Predicted
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16Columbia University2.34-3.29vs Predicted
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17Princeton University1.10-1.19vs Predicted
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18Hamilton College0.85-1.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.62St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.2%1st Place
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5.62Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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3.63Georgetown University5.190.2%1st Place
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10.69Cornell University2.890.0%1st Place
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7.78Old Dominion University3.760.1%1st Place
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5.92U. S. Naval Academy4.340.1%1st Place
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11.29Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.0%1st Place
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8.18University of Pennsylvania3.630.1%1st Place
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11.36Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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6.67SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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11.1George Washington University2.840.0%1st Place
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14.28Hampton University1.840.0%1st Place
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8.77U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.440.0%1st Place
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8.34University of Virginia3.540.0%1st Place
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8.17Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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12.71Columbia University2.340.0%1st Place
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15.81Princeton University1.100.0%1st Place
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16.05Hamilton College0.850.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Menninger | 15.1% | 14.2% | 13.8% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Blouin | 9.1% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Buckingham | 19.9% | 21.3% | 14.9% | 12.8% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Andrews | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 12.5% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| Stephanie Roble | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Robert Vann | 9.4% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 12.8% | 8.8% | 4.4% | 1.6% |
| Halsey Richartz | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Sachs | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 9.0% | 5.0% | 1.1% |
| Shawn Murray | 9.0% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Ricketson | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 4.4% | 1.8% |
| Andrew Shoemaker | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 18.5% | 20.7% | 12.4% |
| Eric Horrocks | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 4.0% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Michael Whitford | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Billy Hines | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 13.6% | 14.9% | 10.6% | 3.9% |
| Gavin Schlissel | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 11.9% | 25.1% | 36.5% |
| William McIvor | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 11.7% | 25.2% | 40.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.