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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.06+7.30vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.12+2.61vs Predicted
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3Boston University0.72+10.21vs Predicted
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4Tufts University1.98+4.31vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.28+5.88vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.23-1.73vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.70-1.14vs Predicted
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8Brown University2.41-1.32vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.52+1.10vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College1.11+1.84vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston1.75-1.64vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University2.55-5.40vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College2.03-4.95vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan0.49-0.53vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.74-5.76vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University0.79-3.10vs Predicted
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17University of Hawaii1.15-5.38vs Predicted
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18University of Miami-0.32-2.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.3University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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4.61Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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13.21Boston University0.720.0%1st Place
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8.31Tufts University1.980.1%1st Place
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10.88Old Dominion University1.280.0%1st Place
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4.27Dartmouth College3.230.2%1st Place
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5.86Tulane University2.700.1%1st Place
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6.68Brown University2.410.1%1st Place
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10.1Northeastern University1.520.0%1st Place
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11.84Connecticut College1.110.0%1st Place
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9.36College of Charleston1.750.1%1st Place
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6.6Georgetown University2.550.1%1st Place
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8.05Bowdoin College2.030.1%1st Place
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13.47University of Michigan0.490.0%1st Place
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9.24U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.740.0%1st Place
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12.9Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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11.62University of Hawaii1.150.0%1st Place
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15.7University of Miami-0.320.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 13.5% | 14.2% | 14.8% | 12.4% | 11.4% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucy Paskoff | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 12.2% | 16.3% | 11.4% |
| Chloe Holder | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 3.6% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 17.1% | 16.4% | 15.8% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 11.4% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Caroline Bayless | 8.2% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 3.6% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
| Aili Moffet | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 4.3% |
| Grace Squires | 5.1% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| Piper Holthus | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ellie Maus | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Christiana Scheibner | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 13.0% | 16.0% | 15.6% |
| Emma AuBuchon | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Grace Watlington | 1.7% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 13.1% | 15.9% | 8.8% |
| Mercy Tangredi | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 4.2% |
| Sarah Schuringa | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 15.5% | 47.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.